Canada Mobile Forecast Q3 2008 (Rogers to dominate)

Report released by Research and Markets of the “3Q08 Canada Mobile Forecast”. Here are some highlights:

– Q1.08 subscriber numbers, we are now forecasting the wireless penetration level in Canada to be 71.1% in 2010 (compared to our previous forecast of 71.4%). Total subscribers in Canada are forecasted to increase from 20.0 million in 2008 to 24.4 million in 2010.
– Given the success of the spectrum auction and the entry of new players, we are now forecasting a slight decline in market shares among the incumbent operators on Canada. While we do not provide a forecast for Bell Mobility, we think that it’s current 31% market share is the most vulnerable to erosion by new entrants. We continue to view Rogers Wireless as the strongest incumbent wireless operator and expect its market share to be 36.5% of subscribers in 2010 (previously 37%).
– We forecast that Rogers Wireless will receive the highest ARPU (average revenue per user) among other wireless operators in 2010 at US$ 65.26 per month (previously, our estimate was US$ 62.31 for Rogers). Rogers Wireless will also have the highest MOU (minutes of use) per subscriber at 714 minutes per month in 2010.

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