Report: 30.1 million subscribers by 2014, Rogers leads with 11.3

A new report has been released by Research & Markets called “2Q10 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 – 2014”. This gives detailed statistics on how Canadian wireless market will see a dramatic increase in the number of subscribers to 30.1 million by 2014.

A few weeks ago we saw another report by the Convergence Consulting Group that talked about how by the end of 2014 new entrants subscriber base (EastLink, Mobilicity, Public Mobile, Shaw, Videotron, and Wind Mobile) will have 22% of the market. However, in this current report there is no mention of the new carriers and states that “Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber base increase from 8.50 million in 2009 to 11.3 million in 2014.” In addition, “Bell Mobility will have 8.87 million mobile subscribers and Telus Mobility will have 8.58 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014”. The Big 3 have a combined total of 28.74 million subscribers which leaves a total of 2.25 million subscribers for all the remaining carriers.

Another note in the report to consider is the ARPU (Average revenue per user). Research & Markets states that “We expect that Rogers Wireless’s monthly ARPU will reach C$67 in 2014… Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility will be approximately C$51 and C$40 respectively in 2014, according to our model.”

So by 2014 do you think these stats are what the Canadian landscape will actually look like this? Where do you think WIND, Mobilicity, Public Mobile, MTS, Videotron, SaskTel, Shaw will fit in?