According to Scotiabank’s analysis, Rogers is predicted to report mixed Q1 2020 results and remove its outlook for the year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The bank’s telecom analyst Jeff Fan notes that Q1 results “will not matter” much except for insights related to March as the market focuses primarily on the impact of COVID-19 on the 2020 outlook.
The prediction report notes that the key is to focus on the carrier’s comments on the areas affected and assess the severity and the duration of impacts.
“We believe the extent of the estimate revision for 2020 is important because it will form the base for a 2021 gradual ‘U’ shape or a more pessimistic ‘L’ shape recovery because a ‘V’ shape recovery seems no longer realistic,” the report states.
The report indicates that the areas that will likely be most impacted by COVID-19 are subscriber activations and churn rate, wireless roaming and overage revenue, cable business segment and sports broadcasting and events.
As for Q1 2020 itself, Rogers is expected to report 28,000 postpaid wireless net additions, along with a loss of 50,000 prepaid net additions.
Postpaid churn rate will be around 0.96 percent, which is a slight decrease from the 0.99 percent reported in Q1 2019. Churn rate is the percentage of subscribers who discontinue their subscriptions in a month.
Rogers’ blended ARPU (average billing per unit) is predicted to be around $64.23, which represents a slight decline from the $64.62 recorded in the same period a year ago. The report indicates the carrier’s blended ABPU (average revenue per unit) will be $52.28, depicting a decrease from the $54.13 reported in Q1 2019.
The Toronto-based carrier is scheduled to report its Q1 2020 results on April 22nd, making it the first of the Big Three to do so amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with Bell and Telus reporting their earnings in the coming weeks.
Last week, regional carrier Freedom Mobile reported its Q2 2020 earning and revealed that it was withdrawing its 2020 outlook due to economic uncertainty.