Report: Rogers to have 35.7% market share by the end of 2012

Ian Hardy

February 23, 2011 2:01pm


A new report by IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR) called “1Q.2011 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 – 2015″ shows that Canada is poised to approximately reach 28 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2012 (an increase from 25.3 million in 2010). The report shows Rogers will continue to lead with 35.7% market share (10.5 million subs). Probably the most interesting takeaway is that they project TELUS to overtake Bell for the second place as the largest carrier with 27.3% market share (7,644,000 subs) and Bell having 27.0% (7,560,000 subs). For some reason IEMR doesn’t include Virgin Mobile in the Bell numbers so it might be a bit skewed.

The report also stated that “We expect the entry of new mobile operators such as Videotron and Wind Mobile to take greater market share away from Bell relative to Telus, given Bell’s stronger presence in Central Canada and the new entrants’ focus in that part of the country.”

For a perspective, at the end of 2010 here’s what the Canadian wireless subscriber numbers looked like:
Rogers: 8,977,000 subscribers
Bell: 7,242,048 subscribers
TELUS: 6,971,000 subscribers
MTS: 483,754 subscribers
WIND: 250,000 subscribers (estimated)
Mobilicity: 94,000 (estimated)
Public Mobile: 59,000 (estimated)
Videotron: 135,000 (estimated)
MTS/SaskTel/Bell Aliant: 1,055,000 (estimated)

Source: BusinessWire

  • Colin

    I’m one of those 8,977,000 subscribers, but I won’t be as soon as Wind or Mobilicity gets to my area.

  • KV

    Considering for several reasons I decided to discontinue my service with Rogers this week, the total number of Rogers subscribers is going to be likely closer to 8,976,999.

    Reasons for leaving Rogers:

    a) My wife has a plan through retentions for unlimited North American calling – no long distance fees while travelling in canada – for $50. Yet the best they can offer all the rest of us is $500 local minutes for $50. Pointless if you use your phone for travelling, because you need to pay long distance fees.

    b) Rogers offered a promotion for iphone users for 6Gb data for $30. Yet after the promotion you need to pay $25 for 500 Mb. what the hell? Is data that ridiculously overpriced.

    c) If I renewed my contract, I would still have to pay an ECF even though I wasn’t purchasing a phone. Ridiculous. Why would I have to pay an ECF if I wasn’t buying a new phone? It serves purely as a choice deterrent for consumers.

    d) Rogers service in Northern Ontario is just plain awful.

    • Max

      Good for you KV. Hope the others really sit down and THINK before signing any contract with any wireless service providers.

    • RM

      im no fan of Rogers but you’re either naive or misrepresenting your dealings with Rogers on purpose

      – you dont have to pay an ECF when you renew your contract early, thats simply untrue
      -im on the 6GB for $30 plan, I managed to drop it to $20 by simply asking for the $10 data credit, and I locked it in for 3 years, not difficult at all
      -I find it very hard to believe your rep wouldn’t honor the rate your wife pays for LD, id call again and ask..also whenever you renew your contract, they usually throw in 1000 LD minutes for free..just ask and they’ll do it..if not..call back and try a different rep

    • Jim R

      Yes, data is that ridiculously overpriced.

    • KV

      @RM

      Perhaps my post was not clear. I meant to imply that I would still have to pay an ECF if I renewed my contract and wanted to cancel before the 3 year period ended, even if I didn’t buy a phone.

      As Rogers would not have invested any capital into the business agreement should I have renewed, there is no justification to demand a contract termination fee. They are not losing money off me by providing me service at the rates they charge so in this case why would they require that I still agree to an ECF.

      Alternatively, I could still have stayed on month to month but they would not have offered me a cost effective service until they had me locked into an agreement that was completely one-sided in their favour. These contracts are not written for the benefit of consumers. Read your contracts.

  • Rogers Rep

    KV,

    Sorry to hear that and if you are living in Northern Ontario then you have no choice but to deal with Bell, Telus or Rogers. I feel your pain and as a Rogers Rep, I’m with Wind.

    Hang in there, good things will happen soon enough. Try contacting retentions and get the deal you want. It doesn’t hurt to try. Or simply tell them you want the same plan as your wife or you will pull both phones, they will cave.

    • KV

      Sorry Roger Rep,

      But that it is my fundamental disagreement to the whole way the system is setup. Why should I have to talk to retentions to get a better deal? Its ridiculous. When you do you can very reasonable cost effective deals. Re: my wife’s $50 all you can eat long distance buffet plan.

      However, the stiffs locked into contracts are drastically overpaying for similar services.

      Robellus have been gouging us for so many years people think this is a normal way to run a business. It’s not.

    • Rogers Rep

      KV,

      The entire system is set-up to make money and I don’t know anyone who opened a business with the idea to lose money (Well maybe the federal government).

      A company will not contact you and say “hey, save more money and switch to this plan so we can make less money off of you”. It is up to the smart and savvy consumer to find the holes and get through the wall that so many others are facing.

      I worked for Master Card for four years and it is the exact same way. If you want a system to be rigged, start a revolution and bring down capitolism, otherwise do what you can with the tools you have.

      Call retentions, play hardball and get what you want. The only way to be heard is to rap on the empty skulls of those who are in charge and if enough people do this, the revolution will begin.

      Look at what the new upstarts and what they have done for the industry in just the past two years!? I have never seen so much change. The big three are finally getting the idea that their old business policies will not fly anymore and more and more you see the big three lower prices and offer more.

      True that what they(Robelus)offer can still be considered a slap in the face but just imagine where we will be in five years. Good things come to those who wait.

    • KV

      Ummm… no. Theoretically if this was an open and free capitalist market and not the oligopoly that the CRTC has let it become, cell phone services would be a lot cheaper.

      Consider that if you threaten to leave rogers you can get an amazing $50 dollar unlimited plan, which in Canada is a pretty sweet deal for a big 3 provider. They wouldn’t offer that plan unless they were confident they could make money on it. If they can make money on that surely their other plans are overpriced.

      In a true open market one provider would then lower his prices to get more customers. Others would follow suit to be competitive until prices stabilised at a reasonable profit margin for the companies and reasonable prices for the consumer.

      This is not what’s happening in Canada with the big 3.

      I find it amazingly funny that the CRTC doesn’t see a problem with this phone subsidy/contract model and how it is not in the best interest of the consumer.

  • jarr

    :D

    love it

    Rogers wins, once again.

  • Rog

    I’m on Fido, month-to-month having just left a miserable Bell contract.

    I’m avoiding contacts right now. With the market channing so quickly (here comes Shaw), getting locked in for years just doesn’t make any sense to me.

  • Jonesy1966

    There is nothing that could entice me back to Rogers. Nothing! I would rather go without a phone than ever go back.

    • RoccoStiffReddi

      careful the genie uncle swarie may just grant you that wish, seeing how he has made a mess of wind you maybe with out a phone.. you will scurry to mobli..

      quashed

    • Jonesy1966

      I’m going nowhere, Rocco, there’s no need. Besides, Mobilicity isn’t even available where I live so it’s never been a choice for me. But wait, Public is!

    • jonesy1966

      I meant to mention, Rocco, your responses are getting more and more predictable with each and every post. Time for a new script, methinks, I could have written that one for you blindfolded.

  • Steve

    Some of the projections made by this report sort of fly in the face of the results we’ve seen from the carriers in 2010, notably Q4

  • swigg

    Why do we have to have 3 year contracts and in the US it’s only 2 years?
    that’s complete crap…and we pay more per month!!!!!!

    • Terry

      Good thing you’re not listening to Europe. Governments there are getting concerned at how many two year contracts there are and are thinking of forcing companies to offer both 1 and 2 year offers, instead of just 2 year and the occasional 3 year.

      Yeah, $%^&ing EU has the best consumer protection sometimes.

    • WirelessBoy

      You choose to go on a 3 year contract because of the cheap price of the phone, come on…admit it, that’s why people go for the 3 year contract. You can go on monthly if you want, the choice is there for you.

      As I said before in another post, all this talk about 3 year contracts is getting rather OLD. Rogers has had month to month plans for YEARS…nobody took them because the phone prices are too expensive. Nobody holds a gun to your head and forces you to take a 3 year contract, you want the phone for a cheap price and that is why you chose the 3 year contract. Start taking responsibilities for your OWN actions.

  • Nick

    I call BS on the validity of their numbers. There are some things you just can’t know, and how 30 million people, 3 massive companies, and countless little ones will be interacting for the next 2 years is one of them.

    There are literally dozens of things that are likely to happen that could make this entire projection meaningless. Fun with numbers, yes, but totally irrelevant.

    Example: One company gets exclusivity on some awesome piece of hardware. Like AT&T with the iPhone in the US.

    That said, you don’t need to be a genius to predict that as new entrants build networks, their attractiveness to consumers will increase. Just about any other prediction is like reading tea leaves.

  • haixin

    Problem is Rogers, bell and telus all sit at the head of CRTC and they are trying to prevent the new competition from coming in. We as consumers need the competition because we are sick and tired of having hyperinflated prices. But CRTC suggests that if the government intervenes and allows new competition it will only hinder the ability of them (CRTC) to self-manage and provide whats best for consumers (aka money in their pockets)

  • Big 3

    I don’t get why subscribers for the Big 3 are going up when we have the new entrants. Don’t people know that their pricing are expensive?

    Smoke signals is better than Rogers

    I wish we had Hong Kong pricing in Vancouver: $18CAD/month for 1000 mins, unlimited text and 200mb, call display and voicemail on a 2-year free smartphone contract. Yet they only have 4 major companies there.

  • tbr

    “Public Mobile: 59,000 (estimated)”

    If this is true they are doing the best out of the new entrants. With 59K subs and only 1/6 the investment these numbers are fantastic.

    • RoccoStiffReddi

      TBR also do not forget they are Canadian owned and controlled. And not for sale. So YOU are totally right they are doing great! Wind not so much less than 200k subs must hurt.. a lot. Outsourced and quashed.

    • Jonesy1966

      LMAO! Never let it be said that you’re not a constant source of amusement, Rocco.

    • Jonesy1966

      It’s the new math! Apparently 59,000 subs is bigger than 94,000 and 250,000. 1/6th the cost didn’t stop Public from going begging, cap in hand, to other carriers for a partnership late last year. All, including Mobilicity & Wind, said no. It’ll be interesting to see how the new found influence of ZTE on Public Mobile will play in the inevitable investigation they’ll find themselves in.

      Oh, the sweet irony!

  • GT

    Come-on, there is only 30 million Canadians, where do these companies get these numbers from :-)

    • Rogers Rep

      Actually there is close to 38 million Canadians. Plus imagine that one person has more than one phone..work + personal. All makes sense.

      Companies issue their own phones to employees, then employees usually have their own

  • BT

    Go ahead and buy a phone at regular price (not at discount price with 3 years term), then go with any month-to-month or pay as you go plan, stop complaining when you want to own a smart phone at cheap price, go with grandpa’s phone for $50 then you don’t need any contracts at all!