Report: New entrants to capture 16% market share by the end of 2014

A new report has been published by the Convergence Consulting Group called “The Battle for the North American (Canada/US) Couch Potato: Bundling, TV, Internet, Telephone, Wireless”. This is a continuation of their previous reports and the consulting company has been accurate in the past.

Recent estimates show the new entrants (WIND, Mobilicity and Public Mobile) have captured about 359,000 new subscribers while the Big 3 (Rogers, Bell and TELUS) have approximately 23.2 million subscribers. According to Convergence the new entrants have undercut the incumbents’ combined voice/data pricing by more than 60%. This shows to be true with Mobilicity and WIND offering an all-in voice and data plan for $45/month. Meanwhile Public Mobile just announced their data offering for a $5/month add-on which would bring their Unlimited talk, text and data plan to $40/month. Even though the Big 3 saw a 34% jump in data revenue growth in 2010, Brahm Eiley, a principal with Convergence, stated they forecast an additional spike in data revenue this year by 27%, with a continued 4% decline in voice revenue (voice ARPU dropped 8% in 2010).

A more interesting stat in the report reveals that by the end of 2014 the new entrants will have over 16% of the wireless market for a total of 5.4 million wireless subscribers. “We forecast New Entrants (cable & independent) will capture over 16% of the Canadian wireless market by YE2014 (5.4 million wireless subs), up from 2% at year-end 2010, and 6% at year-end 2011. Canada saw close to 2 million wireless additions in 2010; we forecast this higher run-rate will continue.”

3 years… 5 millions subs to go. Thoughts…

Source:  Convergence Consulting Group