April 2, 2012 8:32pm
Based on some recent stats it’s estimated that the total wireless subscriber base in Canada is 26,383,417, this is up about 7% from last year. Rogers is still leading the pack with 9,335,000 subscribers, with Bell and TELUS close behind. As for the newer wireless players, at the end of 2011 WIND Mobile has racked up around a total of 403,000 subscribers, but Mobilicity says they’ve “claimed its place as the nation’s fastest-growing new wireless entrant.”
A new report by The Convergence Consulting Group called “The Battle for the North American (US/Canada) Couch Potato: Bundling, Television Internet, Telephone, Wireless” has some interesting Canadian stats. Brahm Eiley of Convergence says his team is forecasting the “New Entrants’ will have 6.5% of Canadian wireless subscribers by year-end 2012, up from 4.3% year-end 2011.”
It’s currently estimated that Wind, Mobilicity, Public Mobile and Videotron have a combined subscriber base of over 1 million. So let’s say the Canadian wireless subscriber base conservatively increases to 27 million subs, this means that the new entrants will have about 1.75 million subscribers by the end of 2012. Could happen, but serious mergers/acquisitions will have to happen.
In addition, carrier ARPU (average revenue per user) dipped again this year – somewhere to the tune of 1%. Data revenue soared, but voice revenue dramatically fell. The new carriers such as Mobilicity, Wind and Public helped drive this trend by continuing their low cost all-in promotional plans that range between $25-$40/month. Brahm Eiley of Convergence says that “when not taking into account promotional pricing, New Entrants can undercut Incumbents & their discount brands by more than 40% on combined voice/data pricing and by more than 80% on data alone.”
Have you switched over to one of the new carriers (and stayed)?
Update: Convergence sent me an email stating that “We estimate the new entrants had 1.125 million subs at year end 2011 and forecast 1.8 million year end 2012.”
Source: Convergence (PDF)