Freedom expected to have neutral Q2 results, revise 2020 outlook amid COVID-19 pandemic

The carrier is expected to report higher ARPU and postpaid churn rate

According to Scotiabank’s analysis, Shaw Communications’ Freedom Mobile is expected to have neutral Q2 2020 results.

The bank’s telecom analyst Jeff Fan notes that the primary focus is going to be the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 outlook, and less on the February quarter results.

Shaw will likely need to revise its wireless guidance of postpaid net additions and 2020 ARPU growth due to store closures, lower activations and roaming revenue impact.

As for Q2 2020 itself, Fan believes that wireless results will “reflect a competitive holiday period along with one of the most competitive post-holiday periods” because the Big Three regularly had $75/ 20GB promotions.

Freedom is expected to have 50,000 postpaid wireless net additions, along with a loss of 7,000 prepaid net additions in Q2 2020.

Fan predicts that the carrier’s ARPU (average revenue per unit) will be $38.11, while it was $37.36 in Q2 2019. Freedom is also expected to have a wireless ABPU (average billing per unit) of $44.20, which is an increase from the $41.12 reported in the same period a year ago.

As for churn rate, Freedom is expected to report an increase at 1.50 percent, which is a jump from the 1.36 percent reported in Q2 2019. Churn rate is the percentage of subscribers who discontinue their subscriptions in a month.

Shaw Communications is scheduled to release its Q2 2020 results on April 9th.

Source: Scotiabank