Report: New entrants to have 3.2% market share by the end of 2012

Following up to the report yesterday by IE Market Research (IEMR) called “1Q.2011 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 – 2015″. They believe that Rogers, Bell and TELUS will have 90% market share by the end of 2012. The other 10% are spread across the other carriers such as SaskTel, Videotron, MTS and the new entrants WIND Mobile, Mobilicity and Public Mobile.

We’ve been forwarded deeper stats of how IEMR sees the new entrants doing. There are no individual breakdowns for each but they say that WIND, Mobilicity and Public Mobile will have a combined market share of 3.2% at the end of 2012 (an increase from 1.2% from December 2010). This translates into a total of 897,000 subscribers – gradually increasing by 78,000 subscribers every quarter until December 2012.

Since Mobilicity and Public Mobile are private companies they are not obligated to release subscriber numbers. A recent RBC report pegged Mobilicity to have 94,000 subs and Public to have 59,000. In addition, Wind Mobile recently stated they have over 250,000 subscribers. RBC estimates the new entrants to currently have a combined subscriber base of 403,000.

Regardless of industry reports… where do you think WIND, Mobilicity and Public will end up?