A new report has been released by the Convergence Consulting Group called “Canadian Wireless 2008-2014: Assessing The Impact of New Entrants” that gives a good viewpoint of what the future could hold. By the end of 2014 the number of subscribers the new carriers (Wind, Public, Mobilicity, Shaw, Videotron and EastLink) will rake in are estimated to be 6.05 million or 18.6% of Canadian. This means the total number of wireless subs in Canada is estimated to be around 32.5 million (the incumbents will increase by 1.9 million per year).
Other key findings in the report state that:
– Canadian ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) will decline 1% in 2010 (ARPU declined 3% in 2009),
– Voice ARPU will see a 7% drop in 2010 (Voice ARPU dropped 9% in 2009)
– Data ARPU will grow by 26% in 2010
– Smartphone/data device subscribers will represent 31% by year-end 2010, and 60% by year-end 2014 (this was 22% in 2009)
– Wireless substitution (households with just a wireless phone no wireline phone) will grow to 28% by year-end 2014 (increased from 9% at year-end 2009).
In the report it shows one of the reasons for the increased new entrant subscriber numbers is solely based on pricing: “New entrant combined voice/data prices can undercut Incumbents and their flanker brands by more than half (or up to 75% when just comparing data), while Incumbent flanker brands can undercut Incumbent voice pricing by more than half.”
Brahm Eiley, a principal with Convergence stated that “It is currently a question mark in terms of whether the Incumbents/Flanker brands will cut data prices – the decision involves certain trade-offs. That being said, given the new entrants data prices they will certainly take subscribers.”
Check out the report here at Convergence Consulting Group