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Gartner: Apple to continue tablet dominance until 2015


Tablets, according to the latest Gartner report, are continuing to surge in adoption. This year manufacturers have flooded the market by offering every size possible: 5, 7, 8.9 and 10-inch have all been produced. Apple has the iPad, Samsung has the Galaxy Tab, LG has the Optimus Pad, HP has/had the TouchPad, RIM has the PlayBook, Sony has the S1 and HTC has the Flyer… so many options to choose from. Gartner states that sales will increase this year to total 63.6 million units, up 261.4% from last year, and on pace to hit 326.3 million units by the end of 2015.

Apple has the lions share of the market, but those who have tablets running on Google’s Android OS are slowly taking a piece of the pie. The report says by the end of this year the iPad is estimated to take 73.4% market share, down almost 10% from last year. Making up the rest are all the other tablets to which Gartner says they do not “expect any other platforms to have more than 5 percent share of the tablet market in 2011″. In fact, the report suggests that tablets running on Android will only sell 11 million units this year, compared to the iPad at over 46 million. But there’s hope, even for RIM. Gartner suggests that by the end of 2015 RIM’s PlayBook, powered by QNX, will have sold 26 million units, Android with 116 million and Apple, still leading with 148 million units sold.

Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner, said “We expect Apple to maintain a market share lead throughout our forecast period by commanding more than 50 percent of the market until 2014. This is because Apple delivers a superior and unified user experience across its hardware, software and services. Unless competitors can respond with a similar approach, challenges to Apple’s position will be minimal.”

Source: Gartner
Via: IntoMobile

  • JL

    I believe they have that Microsoft number way low considering what we’ve heard of and seen of how Windows 8 will work. They are actually trying to convert the PC/ laptop market over to tablets being the one device to rule them all. The iPad while great for introducing computing to people who wouldn’t ordinarilly use a computer have not converted people to use it as their main device.

    • Nick

      ALL their numbers are skewed towards Apple. I don’t think it’s hard to figure out where their bias lies: “This is because Apple delivers a superior and unified user experience across its hardware, software and services”.

      I don’t want to accuse them of being nothing but futurists for hire, but they have absolutely zero credibility when they simply extrapolate current trends over 3 years assuming nothing will change and then give predictions precise to the thousand. If they were so good they’d be filthy stinking rich from the stock market.

  • Alex

    Right now, Windows tablets are heavy, thick, and has a cpu fan. But give them a year and we will probably have a real iPad competitor.

  • Jordan

    It seems to me that these numbers are influenced by smart phone sales. Judging by the amount of resources companies like samsung are putting into their tablets and the popularity of android, I expect it to grow faster. In RIM’s case they might see a pretty big jump when they get the android market. I can for sure see the numbers for windows 8 being a hell of a lot higher as it will eventually replace lap tops. I don’t know about that soon but windows is the most capable and fully functioning “PC experience” that any tablet will have. I expect it will also see a huge spike in a year or two. Especially since all windows software works on it.

  • Matt

    I have to question their numbers a bit on this. They’re saying that RIM will have 3 million QNX tablets out by the end of 2011…..Yet they have only SHIPPED 700,000 and sold roughly only 200,000 of those as of Sept. 15. I don’t see where the additional 2.8 million tables sold are going to come from.

  • Brad

    I believe it, in 2015 we will be too busy with our flying cars, shoes with power laces and hoverboards to care about tablets anyway

  • Person

    If iPad came out a year earlier it would have been like the ipod
    Lol

  • Alex

    BB will not sell 26 million tablets in 2015, let’s be realistic.

    • 2bad4RIM

      Re: RIM Playbook. Remember that RIM talks about SHIPMENTS not sales: Q1 500K SHIPPED; about 200K sold; Q2 200K SHIPPED and about 25K SOLD. that’s about 470K left in the sales channel and 800K sitting in RIM warehouses NOW. and they just fired about 1000 poeple form the assembly line. They only way to sell the remaining ones is to do a fire sale at $99 and then relaunch the product…if they still exist or haven’t been bought by Tim Hortons! They will be giving you a Curve to put your double double on top by Feb!

  • Sean

    I see this being a three way race between the windows tablets, Android tablets and iPads. No matter which sells more they will all influence each other in the same way their phones have influenced each other..

  • Steve

    @Matt Where do you get the number of 200,000 PlayBook sold? RIM did not release that number so it is pure speculation. On the other hand, I agree with you that the numbers are questionable. I don’t believe for a second that there are 11 million Android tablets on the market. The iPad is the only tablet that I see in the wild.

    • bob

      I believe 200 000 comes from the last RIM quarterly statement. The next day, the stock was down 20%.

      You only see iPads because Android is only beggining to offer some real competition. Don’t forget that you also see iPads from 2010, when iPad was outselling Android 6:1. I think that 4:1 in 2011 is realistic.

  • zorxd

    Android phones sell well because they have the best hardware when they come out. The competition catches-up in the following months.

    iPad sell well too… because they have the best hardware when they come out. The competition catches-up in the following months.

    Same game, inverted roles.

  • Jeff

    I guess dwindling dominance is still considered dominance.
    Anyways, predictions like this are always just a guess and cannot account for the unexpected.
    Say all of a sudden Microsoft makes a tablet design that is amazing, say a roll up flexi touchscreen or something.
    Check out Freakonomics podcast on the folly of prediction.

  • Mr Truth

    It will also be 2015 when native email and calendar hits the PlayBook

    • Natalie Gulbris

      Yah where is native email, calendar, contacts, task list, etc on the playbook.

      I remember Balsillie saying when it came out in march 2011 that it’d have those in 60 days, then that became by the end of summer, and we still don’t have it.

      Today is the last day of summer so i guess he still has a few more hours before he has officially lied again.

  • Clint

    This extrapolation is a house of cards. For 2 huge reasons.
    a) Android v4 is an unknown & b)Windows is an unknown

    The Android OS 4 is almost out. It just needs to be a more intelligent (read as constantly easy to use) interface, while providing a level development platform that gets updates consistently across the platform. Two of the above 3 points are supposed to be solved. The question remains about the UI.

    For Windows..they are constantly adding features that people can actually use and a lot of them are ones that the other OS’es haven’t thought of yet. That carries a lot of weight when people actually catch on that the features are there and make their life easier. I’m afraid that Apple isn’t ‘all that’ anymore. They really need some innovation, rather than just fine tuning other’s ideas to lock down into their own ecosystem.

  • mark

    doubt it

  • ELNY

    That’s too bad cuz Android tablets like the Samsung tab 10.1 is worlds better than an ipad

  • astudent

    wow thats surprising, I was really excited for windows 8, but you can never predict these things

  • 2bad4RIM

    That chart could have been written Last yr; it’s so dated!!
    Web OS tablets don’t exist anymore. (once HP releases the last batch)
    -Meego: the N9 will be the one and only phone. No tables at all.
    -MS, where do they get the data? it hasn’t even announced, how could you forecast sales?
    QNX: The Chart figures say SALES they have SOLD 225K in H1 of 2011, double that and you have 450k, add ALL the QNX ever produced sitting at stores and warehouses via $99 and you have 1.5m for 2011 in the BEST CASE Scenario.
    The chart is useless.
    a Q3 chart would only show iOS, Android and QNX with dismal sales.

  • todd

    I guess apple paid for this survey just to post garbage numbers. lets be realistic here, we all know android is the top dog here and everyone knows that. so why are survey saying dumb numbers. apple products are garbage and will always be outdated specs compared to the competition. android is always top of the game

    • Jordan

      If they are so behind, how come it has taken Samsung five months to release a tablet with nearly the same specs as the iPad (minus RAM)? They undoubtedly will be behind the competition next year in terms of hardware, but until then I really do not agree that their specs are outdated. As for the top dog comment, it depends where we are talking. In Canada IOS still has more market share so really they are not top dog at the moment. They are catching up though (about time). Canadians have the iPhone on every carrier and that has caused the sales reps to focus more on selling those because more people know about them than android. Look at Verizon in America, since all the top devices used to be androids they went crazy with ads. Not one Canadian Carrier has done that with the exception of Bell recently. Until carriers start educating not only their employees, but the public, android’s Canadian domination will be left in the slow lane.

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