Ontario has released its 2017 long-term energy plan, and it contains an intriguing prediction about electric vehicles.
The long term plan shows an increase in demand for electricity, driven partially by the growing number of electric vehicles on the road. The Ontario government believes those vehicles, along with electrified transit and the general “electrification of the economy,” will result in the equivalent of 2.4 million electric cars in operation by 2035.
Currently, there are fewer than 15,000 registered electric vehicles in the province.
The government has plans for offsetting that increase in electricity demand, however, stating that its “long-term electricity conservation target of 30 TWh of electricity in 2032 will continue to help offset almost all the forecast growth.”
The predicted increase of electric vehicles does come at a difficult time, however, as Ontario predicts an energy shortfall beginning just after 2020, when one nuclear generation station is set to shut down and two others undergo refurbishment outages.
Ontario says it hopes to deal with that issue by moving away from long-term contracts and diversifying supply mix — which is currently dominated by nuclear, but includes burgeoning water, wind and solar segments.
The government has also revised down the amount it expects hydro rates to grow by, going from an expected $200 per month average bill in 2027 to an $181 per month average bill. Still, it’s an increase of about $54 per month over the current $127 average.