Report: New entrants to have 3.2% market share by the end of 2012

Ian Hardy

February 24, 2011 11:57am


Following up to the report yesterday by IE Market Research (IEMR) called “1Q.2011 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 – 2015″. They believe that Rogers, Bell and TELUS will have 90% market share by the end of 2012. The other 10% are spread across the other carriers such as SaskTel, Videotron, MTS and the new entrants WIND Mobile, Mobilicity and Public Mobile.

We’ve been forwarded deeper stats of how IEMR sees the new entrants doing. There are no individual breakdowns for each but they say that WIND, Mobilicity and Public Mobile will have a combined market share of 3.2% at the end of 2012 (an increase from 1.2% from December 2010). This translates into a total of 897,000 subscribers – gradually increasing by 78,000 subscribers every quarter until December 2012.

Since Mobilicity and Public Mobile are private companies they are not obligated to release subscriber numbers. A recent RBC report pegged Mobilicity to have 94,000 subs and Public to have 59,000. In addition, Wind Mobile recently stated they have over 250,000 subscribers. RBC estimates the new entrants to currently have a combined subscriber base of 403,000.

Regardless of industry reports… where do you think WIND, Mobilicity and Public will end up?

  • Unknown

    Public Mobile has alot of new ideas for the new year… new phones, new network. Watch and see 59 000 will be quadrupled by the end of this year.

    • Jonesy1966

      Public was begging for a partner at the tail end of last year, even approached Mobilicity and Wind; both said no. I’d like to see them survive but they need more money to do it.

  • XER

    I think these numbers are way too conservative…. I would say by the end of 2012, the newbies got be be at least 10%, maybe even 15% of the total market share.

    Don’t forget, if iPhone 5 or iPhone 6 are going to support AWS, then the newbies are thrive!

    • MXM4K

      I highly doubt they’ll reach 10%. The limited footprint that the new entrants have in terms of coverage is what will limit the growth. Mind you, if you would look into the individual markets where they operate, (ie Toronto, Ottawa, Vancouver, etc…) then you might see double digit market shares within those markets, but certainly not on a national level.

    • RoccoStiffReddi

      Xer sipping the wind cool aid again.. Apple has stated AWS is not a vable network option.. so put that to bed.. also you keep missing the point here.. none of the big 3 have lifted a finger to crush wind yet.. read the CRTC verdict.. Sword of Damocles pretty much says it all.. any of the 3 can end wind.. if they ever become a threat. they all have the ” instruments ” in place.. the idea that people will be happy with the network holes of wind is madness.. have another long cool drink of it.. ragubator

    • ZDRuX

      To: RoccoStiffReddi

      Your outlook goes against what the numbers show. Not having an Apple phone as part of their netwworks has done nothing to stop their growth. You also mention the big 3 can “crush” Wind or the other new entrants anytime they want.. what exactly are they waiting for then? You don’t mention that.

      You also say they have elusive and top-secret “instruments” in place, but fail again to mention what those instruments are or how they will be used.

      If you are privy to some top-secret information that the general public is not, perhaps you’d be kind enough to share, but like the numbers show, the new entrants are well on their way to be competing with the big boys sooner or later, and the only thing pushing these numbers are the people who buy and subscribe to these new carriers, so the only way I see the big 3 competing, is by either matching or beating the current deals offered by the new entrants.

  • GoWindGo

    MXM4K, the new entrants are in areas that cover almost a third of the population of Canada so I think that 10% Canadian marketshare can be acheived.

  • 5Gs

    WIND is going to be the big national carrier Canada would love by that time :D

  • Nick

    I put my money on successful expansion. Big cities first, then suburbs, then eventually they’ll reach a critical mass and be able to rival the Big 3. Let’s just hope they don’t raise prices accordingly.

    I think that the faster the network grows, the faster the subscriber base within each market will grow too, i.e.: when Wind covers half of Ontario they will look better to people who spend most of their time in Toronto anyway.

  • malingerer

    ‘then eventually they’ll reach a critical mass and be able to rival the Big 3…?’ really? It’ll take a loooong time to get there, if ever, but at least they’ll keep the incumbents on their toes.. It costs allot of money to build Canada wide networks, if we want service in Timbuktu there is a cost..

    • Nick

      I agree that it’s unlikely that their networks will reach the boonies in all the same spots as the Big 3. I meant “rival” as in they’ll cover enough area for it not to make much difference to a vast majority of consumers.

  • RudioX

    WIND, Mobilicity and Public should do a fusion together to be more powerful and still offering unlimited voice and data plan at $45/month…The big 3 would be afraid a little :-)

  • WirelessBoy

    Personally, I don’t see Public Mobile lasting for a long time, old technology, limited coverage, no name phones. I can see Wind(once their legal problems are out of the way) leading the pack over the new entrants…I do forsee a merger of Mobi and Wind in the future, I just have that nagging feeling.

    I don’t see them taking 10% combined though, I would go with 5%, if things were on a level playing ground with each carrier having the same coverage area then I would say 10% even 15%.

  • chall2k5

    Where the new entrants will fall ultimately comes down to what happens with Globalive’s appeal/Clements new foreign ownership rules….if the market is allowed more foreign investment, I could see T-Mobile partnering with a combined Wind/Mobi, becoming a common AWS (4G yes i know….it really isn’t, but it is after carriers started using it) carrier with North America wide roaming (for an added monthly fee)

  • david dee

    The important thing to note here is market share numbers above are calculated as a percentage of the total Canadian market. As the new entrants do not operate throughout the country, unlike the big 3, these statistics are dilutive to their actual penetration. A more appropriate measure of the new incumbents’ success at penetrating markets would be to review market share by markets in which they are actively offering their services. Also, one should consider amount of time each participant is active in each market, as new cities are coming on board over time in a phased expansion.

  • kiz

    hang in there guys! Once people are done with their contracts (like me in 2 yrs) im jumping ship to join yours. Just keep your wonderful rates steady keep on building them cell sites. :)

  • Josh

    Lets just hope Wind’s legal issues will be resolved. After that I am certain they will gain more ground. As a wind mobile customer i can definitely say they have a great network and excellent customer service. i live in gatineau, work in ottawa and have only had one dropped call in 6 months. I was also lucky enough to switch from their original $45 plan to their $40 plan that has unlimited data. I would love to have a high end smartphone for cheap because i am not willing to dish out the full retail price but i am happy to wait for them to cook up something better than their $150 wind-tab. Maybe $300 wind tab… We’ll see

  • RoccoStiffReddi

    more foreign investment? they are 100% financed so what more could you ask for.. Now the legal issues..again.. are what is going to hold back wind.. and if they do get through that well then the storm begins. Chatr is poised to end them. Lets be realistic here.. match the rates and plans add data toss in the network.. also 4g and bam.. wind who..

    I trust you are all aware the big 3 can go LTE far quicker than the newbies.. and they have the money to do so.. Wind??? not so much.. remember all of Orascom Telecom ALL of it made 1/2 of what Rogers Wireless did.. 6 versus 25 million subs.. do not kid yourself Wind is here for the money! Not to save you.. not to free your shackles.. Uncle swarie is here for a payday .. well he was but his dream is for sale.. BTW any news? no sale? dead in the water..

    Jabroni time to change the water in the goldfish tank..

  • WIND way to go

    These stats are weighed to favour the big boys. What’s the value of a all-Canada market share, when WIND operates in just the major areas in Ontario? Their base is the GTA, so their 250,000 subscribers as of now, means that they have a 10% market share within the GTA. As they expand into Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa, etc, they will pick up 10% of the market share in each of these cities.